2015/16 Winter Forecast – Jacob G’s Forecast (Part 5 of 5)

So here it is the last and final post and just in time looking at the latest forecasts for the weekend. Thanks for following along up to this point. I am a bit exhausted from this journey but it has been fun. So below is what the media is telling you regarding this winter. Two completely different scenarios. Which one do you believe, which one will win in the end? Could this be a Goldilocks’ winter for GRR, a little bit for everyone? Let’s see what we can come up with and narrow this in a bit. It could be that there are both right at different times of the winter, but a blend of some sort might prevail at the end of winter.

In one corner you have the Farmers Almanac:

And in the other corner you have NOAA and CPC:

• Disclaimer do not cancel or plan on buying season pass ski tickets on what I share. Stick to the professionals at NWS and your local TV mets, including the great team over at Wood TV. Thanks Michael for letting me post on my ideas and share my thoughts.
• Another disclaimer, these ideas, statistics are for GRR NWS Airport location. My final ideas will have a location range but for statistics I will be using GRR.
  

2015/16 Winter Forecast – Eurasia & North America Snow Extent (Part 1 of 5)
2015/16 Winter Forecast – El Nino (Part 2 of 5)
2015/16 Winter Forecast – North America Ridge and PDO (Part 3 of 5)
2015/16 Winter Forecast – Teleconnections (Part 4 of 5)
2015/16 Winter Forecast – Jacob’s Forecast (Part 5 of 5)

Here are the years I will be comparing data to help illustrate my ideas and thoughts.

• 1957 – Strong El Nino, closest Pacific SSTA to the current setup
• 1963 – October/November above average temps during Moderate El Nino Fall
• 1965 – Strong El Nino peaked during OND (October-December)
• 1972 – Strong El Nino peaked during OND
• 1982 – Super El Nino
• 1997 – Super El Nino
• 2009 – Last El Nino at Moderate Strength with a very warm November
• 2010-14 – Includes a few warm winters and cold winters and below/above snowfalls.

Jacob G’s Grand Rapids, MI Winter 2015-16 Winter Forecast

So here we go, the unofficial, guess for GRR Winter 2015-16….drum roll…

Grand Rapids, MI will see slightly warmer temps with near to slightly below normal snowfall this winter.

• Nov – Mar Temps:      1.4   (above average, November warmest month)
• Seasonal Snowfall:     70”  (slightly below average at 74.9”, snowiest month January)
  
   

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• Dec – Feb  Temps:      0.5  (slightly above average, warmest month December, coldest month February)
• Dec – Feb  Snowfall:  55”  (slightly below average at 57.5”, snowiest month January, least snowiest February) 

November – March Temperature & Precipitation Anomalies for our Analog Package

December – February Temperature  & Precipitation Anomalies for our Analog Package

So how did we get there. So here is the checklist I went through and my notes and thoughts for each one.

Jet Stream Configurations

Big part is trying to understand jet stream configurations and your source regions. I think with the active southern jet stream the polar jet stream will not be as active as it has the last two winters. I also think we have a split flow over the CONUS for majority of the time. The really cold air will stay locked up into northern Canada for most of the winter. However we cannot under estimate the snowpack to our north and that cold is heavy and can ease into the lower 48 over time. Some of the modeling has a hard time with these types of setups. We will get some good Arctic outbreaks but those will be transient. I don’t see any record breaking cold/warm/least or most snowiest months or seasons this winter.

Snow cover Extent – Top 7 in the last 48 years. Here is the latest image of departures. The negative in Canada I think reverses in next two weeks as snowpack will build up to the north of us.

El Nino Thoughts (Comparison of current date to 82/97 Super El Nino’s)

So we will see classic El Nino weather at times, possibly for a few weeks. The overall winter pattern will remain mostly transient and we still expect the heights to rise into NW Canada later in winter and not into Hudson bay like 82/97. I don’t see any polar vortex setups this year, sorry maybe another year. Also keep in mind this winter compared to the last two winters will greatly feel different. I can say from a feel factor it will feel warmer and dryer than the last two seasons.  I think though we grind this out and come up slightly above temp wise and slightly below snowfall. Overall precipitation will be near to slightly below normal.

The main goal here is determine east vs. central/west and are we a 82/97 style event. If we can determine this part of the puzzle it will give us a huge leg up. As you can tell 82 and 97 were much warmer near South America and Nino region 1+2 and hence a much more east based El Nino. These two images show the differences in SST comparing this year versus the same time in 1982 and 1997.

I think looking at these images it is safe to say we are not trending like 82/97, but still a strong/super El Nino nonetheless. Still not sure we do a record breaking according to the ONI, but top 3 could be and top 5 is locked in. Also if you look at the 500 mb heights shown below for the last 30 and 90 days, which has been a warm El Nino like period, it almost feels like we may have already experience the warm El Nino surge early and we are peaking. Normal El Nino Autumns are cooler than average but this one has not followed suit at all and has been very warm. Again maybe because we are peaking early? The 500 mb heights do have me a bit worried as it shows similar 500 mb heights during the warm 82/97 events regarding location setups. Does this trend continue into winter or does this show that the El Nino effects have peaked? The latest November SOI positive burst is bringing the SOI index into a temporary neutral ENSO state. 

PDO+ Thoughts

The PDO+ will not have as big  as influence as it did last winter. In fact this could be the last winter in a positive state as the El Nino fades in the Pacific I think we may be turning back over not only to La Nina but a negative PDO state. However I do think there is just enough PDO+ to pull the 500 mb ridge back near NW Canada. This will allow the jet to undercut in the Pacific and create a split jet stream over the CONUS. This will leave Michigan in a slightly drier environment. The merging of the polar and southern jet streams will have to be watched for any large winter storm to effect the Ohio valley or Midwest regions. One large storm can throw off snowfall forecasts and it’s hard to predict them in advance.

Teleconnection Thoughts

So here I suspect we see a mostly predominate PNA+ with the SOI going through several burst phases. I don’t think we hold warm temps from January through February like 82 and 97 did where there was limited SOI burst and the SOI index was very deep and negative. We will have to watch for any Greenland block and a NAO-, if that were to show up that would make the second half of the winter much cooler in our area. Right now I think must of the storms will be going out to east coast or the Atlantic with the active southern jet stream. We will see a nice EPO- to end November and start December, however we may have to wait until January to see something similar with respect to departure from averages.

System Snow Thoughts

As there will be a below average polar jet stream at times the system snows that come in may have a higher water content. Having a higher water content will produce lower snowfall amounts. I am taking some of that into the equation here, with an overall slightly lower system snow accumulations. I think the Alberta Clippers may be harder to come by for this winter. 

Lake Effect Thoughts

The big lake should not experience the ice buildup the last two winter has had. I think this will keep our lake effect season open for much of the winter. The coldest month I am projecting will be February and that is climatology the coldest period of the winter. Even though the polar jet stream will visit us less than normal the fact our season will stay open longer and I favor more a west wind component this winter vs. a northerly component I am keeping lake effect accumulations at normal.

Ice Storms

So I did think this is worth mentioning. Back in the last super El Nino event of 97 there was a significant ice storm in southern Ontario in January of 1998. I am not saying this is going to happen again however with slightly warmer temps we could be at elevated risks of more ice storms than snow storms this winter. Again, I am not too worried about this setup yet but thought it was worth at least mentioning.

December Forecast Thoughts

A big part of analyzing winter forecast is to look forward into the month of December. BTW looking for the rest of the month that strong EPO- will prevent us from having all time record warmth in November.  I think December will start off as a typical December to expect around here. I am seeing a pull back after the first week in December and we may settle into a “quiet” period mostly as the SOI is going to stabilize after this huge ride up in November. We are always at risk for re-curving typhoon and it looks like we should work through one in early December. I am thinking a 10-15” of snow between now and December 10th.  This combination of this weekend’s event, lake effect and I think one more lake cutter coming up with rain changing to snow. West winds will be the dominate flow for lake effect from what I am seeing.  I am thinking we see our seasonal snowfall around 24” before Jan 1st. One note is watching the cold air in the west, this will have to be watched as 09 showcased something similar. December 09 was a cold and snowy month with lots of lake effect west wind events. Right now the CPC is calling for about normal month for temps and below average in precipitation for the month of December.

Conclusion

So while not using the cookie cutter El Nino blowtorch theme this forecast does resemble a slightly milder and slightly drier theme. I think it is a good comprise given the current state and where I think things may go. I think to many fall into the blowtorch idea when they hear El Nino and the media certainly has hyped it up (El Nino Godzilla, there I put that in just for Google search engine hits). I hope over this series I have shown not all El Nino’s are the same and not all of them are blow torch setups. Comparing to the last few winters some might like the idea of no visits from good old Mr. Polar Vortex. 

I have  really enjoyed stepping through the analysis and digging into the details to share with you on my thoughts for this upcoming winter in GRR. I hope you have enjoyed it as well. I am constantly reminded that there is a higher power at work and ultimately we can just sit back and enjoy the ride. I plan on updating my data and thoughts as the winter progresses. I will keep the links available in my Jacob’s Nook section. If anyone has any guesses for this winter go ahead and leave it in the comments below. It would be fun to go back and look at the results. Thanks again for letting me share my ideas and for Michael giving me this opportunity.

Have a safe and good winter season,

Jacob G